Razor's Forex Trading

Gold Prices About to Crash?

2012-03-05T07:06:00.001-08:00

Here is my overview on the Weekly and Monthly Charts on spot Gold! The higher time frames on the XAU/USD are very suggestive of bearish momentum building. A few months ago I did a writeup on Gold [Gold Prices to the Moon?] on the monthly charts and this video ties in with that article very well. Enjoy!

Aud/Usd Imminent Trend Reversal?

2012-02-29T15:38:00.001-08:00

After a week of sideways price action, today we finally get the first decent tip as to which way the Aud/Usd may be setting up to move. In the video I go over the some possible support and resistance point and potential entry price zones.

GBP/USD getting ready to drop?

2012-02-09T06:33:00.000-08:00

The Gbp/Usd is finally at a worthy resistance level. The 1.5900 zone is holding so far and the market is starting to diverge. Is a drop in the cards? Only time will tell! Enjoy the Video!

Euro and Pound setting up a bullish move?

2012-02-07T06:55:00.000-08:00

This is a video overview of the GBP and the EURO on the daily and monthly charts.

Gold ready for a retracement?

2012-02-04T13:01:00.000-08:00

On Friday the daily close on Gold was very convincing of bearish momentum building up. The daily chart is showing a very nice bearish engulfing candlestick. I loooove those big candles when they form at the right place. ;-) Enjoy the video!

Aud/Usd Daily PinBar with Divergence

2012-02-02T19:08:00.000-08:00

This is a very curious little bar that has formed today. It is a bit small but the location is very very good. We are at a major resistance level on the Aus/Usd forex pair. Watch the video, have fun!

Gold and Crude Oil Technical Analysis

2012-01-31T11:26:00.000-08:00

Today at noon I looked over the charts and saw some interesting developments on the Gold and Crude Oil futures contracts. Gold is of particular interest as it looks like it is in overbought territory and is diverging heavily. Enjoy!

Mini NASDAQ RSI Divergence.

2012-01-26T09:18:00.001-08:00

I just spotted this setup on the NQ futures contract. There has been divergenve forming for the past couple of days. Lets see if this bad boy breaks.

Nasdaq-SP500-GOLD Market Overview

2012-01-23T18:33:00.000-08:00

Today some very significant price action has formed at some very important price pivots. Tomorrow should be very interesting to see if there is any follow through on some of these setups. Enjoy the Video! :-)

Euro Weekly Bullish Engulfing Candlestick

2012-01-22T17:45:00.000-08:00

I just made this short video analysis on the Eur/Usd. I was checking out the charts on a boring Sunday night and I spotted an interesting development. I won't bother you with too much writing, so watch the video!! :-)

Razors's Forex Trading YouTube Channel

2012-01-22T13:25:00.000-08:00

It has been a while since i posted any updates, now you know why. A lot of people were having major problems downloading all of the videos from Filesonic. I finally decided to put everything on YouTube for easier access. I hope this solves a lot of the issues. I will be uploading more videos in the coming weeks with daily overviews of all the major markets. Enjoy!

Razor Forex Trading Video Channel

Trading the London Open

2012-01-20T17:52:00.000-08:00

I came across this interesting mechanical Forex Trading System that is built on a well known market range principle, combined with the London FX Market Open.
The method is designed to allow you to exploit the fact that on many instances the opening of the London market will extend the trend set prior to the quieter Asian session when it re-opens the next day. This method was developed around trading principles such as the Big Ben strategy and mechanical trade entry system and exit for trades. This is done to reduce the risk and maximize the profits. This forex system can be traded with a minimal time investment. From what I have heard it sounds like an interesting method by the looks of it. Have not tested it myself, but would be interesting to view the results!

GMSForex signals and robots.

2011-12-15T16:26:00.000-08:00

Learning how to trade forex is a long and hard task. It is one of the most difficult things in the world. There are sites like this blog that help with the technical analysis aspect of trading, but there is more then one way to make money. GMSForex offers some alternatives and software solutions that may make things a little easier for the common man. There are plenty of forex signals providers that have good performance. Another popular trend that has emerged lately is forex robot trading. These are programs that are designed to trade the markets based on certain predetermined parameters/algorithms. Over the past couple of years forex robots have become very popular, if you search Google you will come up with plenty of interesting choice. Trading programs are a great alternatives for people who have a full-time job and are too busy to spend time learning to trade. So if you have no tome to learn to trade yourself, you can either subscribe to forex signals or use a forex robot. Simple!

The Curious Case Of a Weak Japanese Yen.

2011-11-12T10:26:00.000-08:00

It has been a few busy weeks for me and I have completely forgotten to update the blog. Today I found some spare time and I thought I would present my thoughts on some Japanese currency pairs. In my trading experience I have noticed that the correlation between EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is very strong and when either pair presents a situation that is confirmed by the other pair it is wise to listen to the market. I was looking over the chart this weekend and I noticed that the EUR/JPY is forming a divergence setup when viewed on the monthly time frame. If you observe bellow on the chart I have marked a massive triple divergence that is showing on the Relative Strength Index. What is also very interesting to note is that the EUR/JPY has formed a big bullish rejection bar and the low of the bar could not be situated more perfectly. The low of the bar is sitting squarely on a support/resistance price pivot that goes back all the way to 2001. This in my opinion is a momentous occasion. This price pivot has not been visited in ten years and the reaction that is produced on the very first touch tells me that zone will be defended. There is a massive confluence of factors at play on this pair, we have triple divergence formed, a very bullish looking monthly candle and a historic price pivot @ 101.00 that has not been re-visited since 2001. Now the monthly chart are a great indicator of long term bias but it would be splendid if there was something that would give us a better clue on a lower time frame. On the second chart bellow I have marked a very nice "pin" candle that is sitting on a solid support area. The 105.00 pivot was very heavily defended in October and is now being used as support. This pair has started making higher highs already and it looks like for the medium term the bias may have shifted to long.

Having blabbered about the EUR/JPY for so long, let me shift the focus to the GBP/JPY now. If we look at the chart bellow for this pair there is a very similar situation. On the daily chart there are two "pin" candles that have formed, almost the same rejection bars as we see in the EUR/JPY. Also there is added support level @ 123.50 which was used back in August. Both Forex pairs have started making high highs already and there are many supporting factors between both pairs that are showing that at least in the medium term the monster downtrend that has been dominating the Japanese Yen might be at an end!

Euro To Continue Downtrend?

2011-10-09T17:16:00.000-07:00

The daily barrage of news reports and stories about the Euro currency is nauseating to say the least. The mood currently is extremely pessimistic and for good reason. So far every piece of economic news regarding the Euro zone has been disappointing and the charts are accurately reflecting the doom and gloom. Enough with the chit chat, let's get into the important stuff. A few weeks ago I made a post about how the 1.3400 area might provide a road block for any downside movement and it did. Since that last post, price has closed very convincingly bellow the 1.3400 pivot. Over the past week a very important development has taken place on the technical side of things. The iron clad 1.3400 price pivot zone is now being used as resistance. Remember, prior support once broken becomes resistance! You may ask yourselves, how do we know that the 1.3400 will hold? The answer is nobody knows for sure, but the market likes to leave little clues here and there for the observant traders. The Euro left us with a very nice daily rejection candlestick at the close of Friday's trading session. I have marked the very large rejection candle on the chart bellow for easy reference. I am a big believer in these formation because they illustrate when a stop run takes place. For the neophytes here, a stop run is when the market spikes into an important price level and reverses instead of continuing in the initial direction. This is how this rejection dynamic manifests on the chart, and it is very often a precursor to a reversal. The downtrend for the Euro has been a very strong for the last few weeks and as of right now it looks like it may continue. Bearish momentum will be confirmed IF the low of that rejection bar breaks with conviction.

Gold Price To the Moon? Maybe Not!

2011-10-03T07:16:00.001-07:00

Over the past couple of weeks I have been reading some popular financial blogs and publications and the common theme and front pages news is the price of gold. You can not find a place online that is not talking about how people are selling their gold dental crowns or selling their children for the privilege of buying some of the precious yellow metal. Everyone and their mother, mother's cousins, mother's brother is buying gold and loading up in preparation for a monetary apocalypse. I have heard so many conflicting opinions from the "Experts" on where the price of gold should be, or where it is going that it will make your head spin. Some financial analysts say $10,000 per ounce, some say $5000 per ounce. As far as I am concerned no one really knows in which direction most of the time the market will move, let alone how far and what exact price the commodity will reach. If you have read anything I have posted on this blog over the past months, you will know that I like to see what the market is telling me on the screen in front of me. In my eyes the charts are the only somewhat reliable indicator of future market bias. In the real world nothing is 100%, but every once in a while if you are observant and patient you might get a clue. If you pull up a daily or weekly chart of gold futures contract or XAU/USD forex pair the uptrend has been steady and the slope of the chart is getting stepper and steeper. Most investors and traders would only see long opportunities and to even suggest a short bias would be considered laughable. I am about to do just that. If you notice on the screenshot bellow, the monthly chart for gold is showing a very large bearish engulfing bar formation.

Since gold started it's stratospheric rise in 2008, there has not been a formation of this magnitude and size. In my experience, before a long term trend is over or a reversal takes place, a parabolic rise in price occurs after which a very sharp downward swing takes place. This is the same dynamic that signaled the crash of the Nasdaq from it's highs at 5000. This very similar price action has played out in gold futures during September and it may be a sign of things to come. I am not stating with a thousand percent certainty that gold is going to collapse, no one knows for sure. However there is an eerie resemblance to what happened right before the Nasdaq bubble popped. If you are a long term investor you should take note of this development, I don't care if you think gold is going to $20,000 per ounce. I would say to wait for a breaking of the low of that bar formation. Always wait for confirmation of directional bias before hopping on the bandwagon. Happy Trading!

SP500 Index To Stage A Turnaround?

2011-09-30T08:28:00.000-07:00

Yesterday the S&P500 Index made a very dramatic reversal at the end of the trading session. Today it has formed a very curious setup at precisely that same reversal point. The sellers look exhausted and it seems like a turnaround might be in the cards for the afternoon session. My favorite indicator the Relative Strength is showing bull divergence which is even more evidence for the bullish scenario. If the high of that big bull candle is broken then the bull sentiment will be confirmed.

UPDATE:

The first setup did not materialize any meaningful momentum. However this setup right now has very good potential. If the top of that "pinbar" breaks it's high it will be another bullish bias setup. Triple divergence has formed and this is looking like a very likely scenario that the S&P500 might reverse direction here. If this bad boy breaks to the upside the first resistance area has been marked on the screenshot bellow.

Euro Yen Forex Currency Pair Analysis

2011-09-29T10:20:00.000-07:00

It is not exactly news to anyone that is involved in the markets the stratospheric heights to which the Japanese Yen has risen. The trend is absolutely relentless, but in the last week a long overdue retracement appeared and gave the Yen some relief. Today after doing my chart scans I noticed a very cool looking price action on the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY forex pairs. Both pairs are very highly correlated and if there is a signal on one pair usually there will be something very similar on the other. Sometimes you can use one as a proxy for the other. I have posted two charts bellow so you can see how evident these correlations are. I am a big believer and fan of rejection bars and today we have some very nice formations. If you notice the four hour charts for both pair are showing very large pin-bars. Not only that, but my favorite RSI divergence is showing very clearly between the swing highs. The GBP/JPY formations is larger and more prominent. A very clear rejection at a very nice price pivot zone. Remember confirmation of bearish momentum is only valid if the low of the candle formation is broken through. Have Fun!

Crude Oil Price To Tumble?

2011-09-28T06:23:00.000-07:00

The price of crude oil has been in a sideways movement since early August. Currently crude is trading in the middle of a range and price has come up against a strong barrier. On the posted screenshot bellow, the resistance pivot has been market by an orange box. Two rejection candle bars have closed and are signaling a possible move south into the lower part of the trading range. If the low of the second pin-bar is violated we may see bearish momentum materialize. Overall on the daily and weekly charts oil is stuck in a sideways chop, however the last few trading days the intermediate trend is down. So this situation can be considered a pullback to resistance withing the short term downtrend. I am sure everyone knows the tired old cliché "the trend is your friend"! Enjoy!

Relief Rally for the Euro Currency?

2011-09-26T14:12:00.000-07:00

The Eur/Usd currency pair has been under significant downward pressure for the last few trading days. Today was the first sign of the bulls coming into the market and taking over the reigns. I usually check the daily closes at 5 pm EST to see if I can spot any unopened presents the forex markets may have left for me. Today I got a nice surprise. A few days ago I mentioned in one of my posts [Euro Big Support] that the 1.3400 zone is a very significant pivot and that it may be smart to wait for bullish price action before joining the frenzy. Today on the daily chart a very nice long rejection bar has formed. The tail is very nice and long which to me says a lot of short covering was taking place and a lot of stops were hit. You can see the 1.3400 was rejected with force and the market closes above the open. This is a very bullish sign and we also have bullish divergence that has formed from the 12th of September low to today's low. Lets do a quick recap. We have a huge support from the 1.3400 price level, we have a very significant rejection bar and we have Relative Strength showing seller weakness. I would say we have a good solid case for a possible reversal. Before you get all giddy with excitement, remember that bullish momentum is confirmed IF and only IF that long doji bar breaks its top by a few pips. Enjoy!

Dow Jones Index Pull Back?

2011-09-23T06:01:00.000-07:00

If the top of that rejection candle breaks its high we can see a nice retracement on the Dow. The Index has fallen straight down for two days without a single sizable pullback anywhere in sight. I just caught this setup by glancing at the one hour charts and it looked very appealing. The rejection bar is situated right on the yesterday's low and it looks a lot like stop hunt to me. We also have RSI DIV between the two swings indicating a lack of seller participation. We are also currently sitting on the low that was formed during the early August panic selling crash. The Dow Jones Index is still in a range bound market. Since we are at the bottom of the range it may be wise to fade the support for now until we get a clear break in either direction.

Gold Price at Major Support!

2011-09-22T17:28:00.000-07:00

At the close of today's trading session I did my usual routine checks of the major market instruments and this Gold chart made me smile just a little bit. Gold has been in a very clear sideways range since about August. Today price reaches a very significant support zone at $1720. On the chart bellow, I have marked two instances during the month of August where price respected the $1720 area very clearly. So we have a nice location, but not much else. Yes we have a rejection bar with a tail on it, but for my personal taste it leaves much to be desired. I would like to see much larger rejection bar, something that signifies a "stop hunt" and a show of force by the bulls. Today we saw a very muted response to that major support. I would sit on the sideline for now and wait for a much more convincing scenario. I think the $1700 level will be a major battle zone level and a much better area to look for a continuation of the long term trend.

If that 4-hour bar breaks to the upside the first target will be $1765. I have marked it on the chart as the first minor resistance. So keep your eyes open for the next few days, we are at a cross road for the yellow metal. Let the games begin!

Euro Drops to Massive Support Zone

2011-09-22T08:50:00.000-07:00

As I am writing this blog post the Euro is sitting on a very key pivot price area. As I have outlined in the market screen shot bellow, the 1.3400 has proven to be a very contested zone. In December of 2010 and through to February of 2011 the 1.34 price area was used a both support and resistance several times. The Euro finally managed to wiggle its way out of that area with a lot of effort. Today for the first time since mid February we are testing the 1.34 and if history is any indicator we might see this zone produce a much needed support for the Euro currency. It is wise to wait for the close of today's trading session before making an educated guess as to what may be in store for this currency pair. Me personally, I am waiting for a rejection bar to form to confirm any buying interest or taking any positions in the market. Remember, patience is a virtue and is rewarded very well in this business. Enjoy!

Tripple Low with Positive Divergence on the S&P Index.

2011-09-22T07:16:00.000-07:00

If the top of that bullish engulfing candle breaks we may be in for a possible retracement to the upside. Right now the S&P is sitting at a very nice support zone that held last week on September 12 very nicely. The location of this reversal price action pattern is absolutely perfect. Bullish momentum will be confirmed IF ad only IF the top of that bullish bar breaks to the upside. You all know I absolutely love to see double and triple divergence and this is a great example.

Australian Dollar Bullish Case!

2011-09-20T15:20:00.000-07:00

A few days ago I posted a forex video overview of several currencies and the AUD/USD forex pair was one of them. At the time of that video on the daily AUD/USD candle chart we had 2 reversal bars with long tails. Today we have another very interesting bar formation that has just closed. If you note on the chart bellow we have a bullish pin bar that has a very strong positive close. There is a nice tail on the bar indicating a very strong rejection of the monster 1.0200 price pivot zone. If you also take note the Relative Strength Index has posted a very nice positive divergence. If you have ready my blog for any length of time you know I love to see divergence formations because they are an indication of possible trend reversals. Bullish momentum will be confirmed IF we get a break of the high of that reversal rejection candle. Having said all that, there are many supporting factors for a bullish scenario for the Aussie currency. We have a very strong support, nice bar and a very clear RSI signal that a reversal may be imminent. Enjoy!

Momentum change for the S&P Index?

2011-09-16T08:06:00.000-07:00

I just caught this situation on the 1 hour charts. Nice divergence formation and a very large bearish engulfing bar signaling a possible break downwards. If that bar breaks its lows it will confirm a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.

Bellow I have included a zoomed out chart to point out a key price area. I have marked a prize pivot in orange color. That zone has been visited for the first time since the end of August. The location of the bar is very good and has a solid backing from that resistance pivot. So here we have area, we have a nice bar formation and divergence indicating a weakening of the bull momentum. Let see if the downward momentum materializes.

Forex Video Analysis on Euro, Aud and Nzd.

2011-09-15T17:27:00.000-07:00

On September 11th I uploaded a video review on the Euro. At the time we were down about 500 pips for the prior week and the currency pair barely had any pull backs. I mentioned that is is common to have a descent sized retracement back to prior support/resistance price area after such a sharp drop. Today the Euro has bulled back and is currently trading at 1.3873 as I am wring this blog post. The 1.3800 zone was my first obstacle to any retracement, but that has broken and the next major pivot is the 1.3900 to 1.4000 area.

The New Zealand Dollar is in a very curious area and has tried to break down 4 time with no success. If you note on the chart bellow, today a very large rejection candle has formed with a nice tail. At this point it looks like that bears are loosing control and a reversal may be in the cards for tomorrow or Monday.

The last time the Australian currency visited the 1.02000 price pivot there were big fireworks. That price zone has proven iron clad many times and until it breaks it is advisable to fade it. In the past two days the Aussie has tried to head for the 1.02000 area and has been rejected quite strongly. A nice rejection candle has formed today and tomorrow if we see a break of the high of that bar the bull may materialize.

If you would like to view a more in depth analysis with extensive commentary you may download my video analysis:

DETAILED VIDEO OVERVIEW: Forex-Overview-September-15th

Download Instructions:

I use Filesonic as my file host. If you do not have a premium account you can download for FREE using the slower download button.

Crude Oil back to old resistance!

2011-09-15T08:13:00.001-07:00

The crude oil market has been in a sideways range for the past few days. Crude oil is back to a very solid resistance price zone. I spotted a nice situation developing. I marked on the chart bellow a nice rejection candle. It has a nice tail on it and there is divergence developed between the two highs. As we all know divergence is a sign of weakness so it may be a good idea to look for counter move on crude. Short momentum will be confirmed only if the low of that bar breaks. Like I always say, wait for the break of the bar for any directional bias confirmation. Happy Trading!

Short S&P Trade Possibility.

2011-09-15T07:33:00.000-07:00

I just noticed this interesting trade opportunity on the S&P index. Price made its way back up to yesterdays high and formed a nice double swing high with a very nice divergence. The chart I posted is a 30 minute time frame and the last bar that closed had a very nice long tail on it. Sellers took over in a very aggressive manner and now it will be interesting to watch if we make it to the first major support zone. The location of the setup is very promising. Let see how she goes. Enjoy!

Stock Market about to tank?

2011-09-14T13:31:00.000-07:00

I was watching the close of the market today and a very interesting situation presented itself. Two days ago I pointed out that the S&P was near the low of the range and that we might rally into Tuesday and Wednesday [Monday Analysis]. Well we did get the upside action and now the market is sitting on a price pivot level as I have indicated on the chart bellow. At the close of today's trading session a very nice two swing with divergence appeared. A huge pin bar formed on the last hour of trading which to me says that everyone was dumping into the close and stops got taken out in droves. This sets the stage for possible downside action into the overnight session or probably into tomorrow. So with that said it will be interesting to monitor the markets after hours to see if we go south. I have Also illustrated on the second chart the first minor and major obstacles to any downside movements. What also struck me as quite interesting was the volume participation. The turn over of contracts in the last hour of trading before the close spiked by almost ten fold from the average during the day. This also tells me there may be major repositioning for tomorrow's trading session. Enjoy!!

New Zealand Dollar about to jump?

2011-09-13T07:06:00.000-07:00

The daily candle chart for the New Zealand Dollar is showing a very nice rejection formation. Two lows have formed at a very significant price reaction zone. The 0.8200 round number had been proven to be a very contested price area one 3 occasion during the past few months. A large pin bar candle formation has appeared which is telling me the 0.8200 zone haS been rejected and we may be changing direction in the next few days. As I always say only look for bullish momentum to build if the high of that bar is broken by a 3-5 pips. A nice bullish divergence is showing between both swings which is always a good thing when looking for price reversal. Happy Trading!!

Daily S&P Futures Index Overview

2011-09-13T06:11:00.000-07:00

The S&P Index is currently stuck in a channel since the beginning of August. There have been several attempts to break out but so far the channel has held up quite well.
Yesterday at the closing of the trading day an interesting candle bar formation has appeared right at the bottom end of the channel. A bullish doji bar with a nice tail is indicative of buyers taking control of the market. The location of the bar formation is very nicely sitting at the bottom of the the current trading range giving us a very clear long bias for Tuesday September 13th. Before getting all excited and giddy it is a wise decision to wait for a break of the top of the bar before the bull momentum is finally confirmed. I decided to mark the minor and major resistance zones in red boxes so they are clearly visible. Enjoy!!

USD/CAD Bearish Scenario?

2011-09-12T14:40:00.000-07:00

The Canadian Dollar has formed a very interesting chart pattern today. On the daily chart a bearish pin bar formation has formed. This bar signifies a stop run and a possible reversal may develop tonight or tomorrow during the European or US session. Look for a break of the low of the bar @ 0.9900 for a confirmation of short momentum to develop. The formation also has bearish divergence developed which indicates lack of buyers at the current price levels. This chart pattern has formed at a very significant round number 1.0000 which is a very very significant price level in terms of prior support and resistance. As you can see on the chart That price level has been used more then five times as a support and resistance during the year. Enjoy!

AUD/USD Bullish Setup?

2011-09-12T14:24:00.000-07:00

Today at the close of the US trading session I scanned over the charts of all the forex pairs to see if there was any interesting developments and I came across this setup on the Australian Dollar. On the one hour chart there is a beautiful two low with divergence setup. If you notice on the chart bellow there is a monster one hour bullish engulfing candle that engulfs the previous three candles by a wide margin. This is an indication of big buying pressure. There is very clean divergence showing between both swing. We also have a round number 1.3000 acting as support. The 1.3000 area has acted as support and resistance on several occasions in the past and is a very proven level.

1 Hour Chart:

4 Hour Chart:

British Pound Possible Retracement?

2011-09-12T09:00:00.000-07:00

The British Pound forex pair has reached a key support area @ 1.5800. This area was rejected very strongly back in July. There is divergence forming and a very nice reversal pin bar formation has appeared. If the top of that pin bar breaks it may be the start of a retracement to the first resistance zone @ 1.5900. The 1.5900 area has been used as both support and resistance in the past 24 hours so that is the first obstacle to any upward price movement. So we have the 1.5800 round number serving as support and the 1.5900 serving as resistance until either side is broken.
Lets see what happens now!

S&P Interesting Trade Setup!

2011-09-12T06:04:00.000-07:00

This is a very interesting setup on the one chart of the S&P Futures contract. Price has formed a double low with divergence and and very nice reversal pin bar formation with a rather big tail. In my experience this kind of setup does indicate a reversal quite often.

The location of this formation is also very important. It is has formed on a major support buffer zone from 22nd of August. If the top of that large pin breaks to the upside a decent retracement for the S&P may be on the way.

EURO Weekly Overview.

2011-09-11T16:39:00.000-07:00

This past week was a very bad week for Euro forex pair. On Sunday September 4th the Eur/Usd was trading at 1.4166, today is Sunday September 11th and we are currently sitting at 1.3614. That is a drop of 500+ pips in 5 trading days with almost no retracements. At this point it is much wiser to wait for a pull back to enter short again. My expereince tell me that the 1.3800 level may provide a good first resistance zone in the event of a pullback. That level was very well respected on two occasions (February 02/11 & March 11/11 ) as I have marked in the chart bellow. If the market retraces and goes through the 1.3800 zone the next BIG resistance is at 1.4000. So the plan for this week is watch for retracement to 1.3800 or 1.4000 and wait for confirming price action to enter the downtrend. Keep checking back for updates as I will post if I see any interesting setups. Happy Trading! :)

For more detailed analysis and additional overview I have prepared a video:
Video Link: Euro Overview

Download Instructions:

I use Filesonic as my file host. If you do not have a premium account you can download for FREE using the slower download button.

GBP/CAD Bullish Setup?

2011-09-08T14:50:00.000-07:00

Today as I was scanning the charts I noticed a nice bullish setup on the GBPCAD forex pair. As you you can see in the screen bellow the pair has formed a lower low and the daily candle has closed as a bullish Doji bar. The there is very clear divergence between both swing lows which is an indication of lack of selling pressure. The bull momentum will be confirmed if price breaks above 1.5830. First resistance level is at 1.5950. Look for a break of 1.5830 for confirmation of bullish momentum.

GOLD about to drop?

2011-09-06T20:59:00.000-07:00

Gold has formed a double top formation. A bearish engulfing candle has formed today signifying selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index showing very clear divergence between the two swings. This short setup has also formed on a 1900 key round number level which has also proven to be good resistance in the past. In my experience this is a a very bearish scenario. If the bearish engulfing candle breaks it's low at 1858 the next stop may be 1836. Watch for break of 1858 for downside momentum.

UPDATE: Price broke the 1858 low of the bar and is now at first minor resistance.

GBP/JPY Reversal?

2011-09-06T09:01:00.000-07:00

I just spotted this setup in the GBP/JPY. The location of this setup is a prior swing low from August 11. There is a nice double low with a very clean divergence forming between the two swings. Seems like the bearish momentum is wavering and a reversal pin-bar has formed. Let see if that large pin bar breaks its top. A break of the top would be a good signal for longs.

UPDATE: Pin bar was good for about 30 pips. Happy Trading!!

AUD/JPY Trend Continuation?

2011-09-05T08:36:00.000-07:00

I noticed this setup while i was skimming over the charts today. If this bullish engulfing bar breaks it's top it may be a nice trend continuation setup. Let see if she breaks.

UPDATE: The low of the bullish engulfing bar has been broken. The setup has been invalidated. The top was never broken and no bull momentum materialized.

Euro Crash?

2011-09-04T16:33:00.000-07:00

I usually trade the much lower time frame charts, but I do keep an eye out for the long term charts such as the daily and weekly. I was browsing the daily and weekly charts today and I spotted this candle formation on the weekly Eur/Usd chart. A monster bearish engulfing candle has formed that completely engulfs the previous two bars by a wide margin as you can see in the screen bellow. The 1.4000 round number however is a huge obstacle for a short position. That area has held as both resistance and support on multiple occasions. There is a also a descending triangle that is forming if you observe the screen bellow. The euro has been in a very tight range since May and it appears that we may be on the verge of a break down. Keep your eyes open this week!!!

August Forex Trading Journal

2011-09-04T14:18:00.000-07:00

Bellow are all my daily trading journal videos for the month of August. In these videos I go over the trades I have taken and I try to go into detail about my thought process during the trading day. The purpose of these videos is to give another perspective about market action to traders of all backgrounds and experience. Enjoy!

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Video Link: August 17/2011 forex trades

Video Link: August 18/2011 forex trades

Video Link: August 24/2011 forex trades

Video Link: August 25/2011 forex trades

Video Link: August 26/2011 forex trades

Video Link: August 29/2011 forex trades